Italian referendum: What happens now?

The expected resignation of Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi marks the start of a new period of uncertainty in Italian politics. It will be the job of President Sergio Mattarella to decide what happens next.

Italian referendum: What happens now?
Renzi announces his resignation on Sunday night. Photo: Andreas Solaro/AFP

Here are some of his options.

Renzi stays in power

Renzi – after a final meeting of his cabinet – will on Monday visit Mattarella, who could ask him to form a new government.

Theoretically he could win a vote of confidence in Parliament, either with his current majority or with a new one including Silvio Berlusconi's centre-right Forza Italia.

But during a press conference early Monday, Renzi seemed to exclude this possibility. “My experience of government finishes here,” he said.

The crushing victory for the NO camp, which is thought to have scored almost 60 percent of the vote, makes the return of Renzi a very distant possibility.

Nominating a technocratic government

This is the most likely scenario. Mattarella appoints a head of government with the support of the current majority or a new enlarged majority.

A number of names are already circulating including Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan and Senate leader Pietro Grasso. The caretaker government would be tasked with passing the 2017 budget in Parliament and modifying a new electoral law before elections take place.

He or she could also decide to continue until the end of the current parliamentary term in February 2018, a move that would likely prove unpopular with political groups such as Five Star, who are calling for elections as soon as possible.

Immediate dissolution of Parliament

This is highly unlikely. A recent electoral reform was designed to ensure the leading party has a parliamentary majority in the Chamber of Deputies, while the failure of the constitutional reform of the senate means it still maintains a proportional system, making the two chambers irreconcilable and a parliamentary majority almost impossible.

The populist Five Star movement, whose founder and leader Beppe Grillo has called for an election “within a week”, believes the electoral law could be modified in the senate if necessary to align it more closely with that of the Chamber of Deputies.

But most other political parties, who have a majority in Parliament, disagree, precisely to avoid a victory of the populist party. They are instead advocating reform of the electoral law.

In the end it will be for Mattarella to decide Italy's immediate future and to ensure there is a majority in favour of forming a technocratic government if he wants to avoid, as many analysts believe, early elections next year.

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Italy’s Meloni in Libya to discuss energy, migration

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni arrived Saturday in the Libyan capital Tripoli for talks on energy as well as the thorny issue of migration, Libyan state media said.

Italy's Meloni in Libya to discuss energy, migration

Meloni’s trip — her second to a North African country this week — is the first by a European leader to war-battered Libya since her predecessor Mario Draghi’s visit in April 2021.

State television said the Italian premier was received by Abdelhamid Dbeibah, who heads the Tripoli-based, UN brokered Government of National Unity which is contested by a rival administration in the east.

Libya and its former colonial power Italy are key trade partners, particularly in energy, where Italian giant Eni plays a major role in tapping into Africa’s largest known oil reserves.

Meloni was accompanied by Eni chief Claudio Descalzi, who is expected to sign a deal with Libya’s National Oil Company to develop two Libyan offshore gas fields.

Eni will invest $8 million in the two fields, NOC chief Farhat Bengdara said in televised remarks this week, adding they are expected to produce 850 million cubic metres of gas.

Meloni visited Algeria on Monday seeking supply deals from Africa’s top gas exporter to help reduce reliance on Russia after it invaded Ukraine last year.

During her trip to Libya, she is also expected to discuss the issue of migration amid rising numbers of irregular migrants from Libya to Italy.

Libya has been wracked by years of conflict and division since a NATO-backed revolt toppled dictator Moamer Kadhafi in 2011.

The country is a conduit for thousands of people each year fleeing conflict and poverty across Africa, seeking refuge across the Mediterranean in Europe.

Meloni’s far-right government took office in October, vowing to stop migrant landings in Italy, which reached more than 105,000 in 2022.

The central Mediterranean route is considered the world’s most treacherous, according to the International Organization for Migration, which estimated that 1,377 migrants had disappeared on that route last year.