Italian doctors doubt testing is Italy's route out of coronavirus lockdown
Testing is being held up as the world's best bet for ending economically crippling coronavirus lockdown measures. But in Italy, some doctors at the centre of the outbreak say it's not a realistic solution.
It's thought that mass testing will be a key part of Italy's "phase two"- the next planned stage of quarantine, in which people must learn to “coexist” with the coronavirus.
It is not yet clear when this phase will begin.
"In phase two, we would like to extend the testing across the country to find those who are infected as early as possible - including those without symptoms," Italy's ISS public health institute director Silvio Brusaferro said.
However, some doctors at the Italian epicentre of the health crisis doubt that testing is their way out of confinement.
"It is a nonsense," Milan's Polytechnic Institute professor Davide Manca said. "Conceptually, I am sceptical."
The reason for Manca's scepticism is plain to see in the math.
Milan's Lombardy region has 10 million people and 11,142 officially registered COVID-19 deaths.
The economically strong area, the size of Belgium, has been under one of the world's strictest lockdowns since early March.
Yet Lombardy has been conducting just 6,500 tests daily over the past 10 days.
Manca estimates it would take more than five years for everyone in Lombardy to get tested just once.
"And you need people tested every 15 days for it to have any meaning," Manca said in a phone interview.
"Even if you raise that number 10 times, that would still take 200 days for one test. That's six or seven months."
Manca was talking about the swab tests that doctors insert up people's noses to see who is COVID-19 positive. Their shortage has made Lombardy's death ratios look stark.
The region had conducted 234,870 tests and confirmed 61,326 cases by Wednesday.
A jarring 18.2 percent of those officially infected with the virus have died of COVID-19 – which would seem to be a startlingly high fatality rate for the virus.
Experts have said this estimated mortality rate will go down once more testing is carried out, as we're currently only seeing part of the picture..
The swab shortage means that Lombardy is only testing those most clearly showing symptoms - and therefore those least likely to survive.
READ ALSO:
"In addition, Lombardy has not tested the elderly in retirement homes, where the virus has circulated a lot," Milan's Vita-Salute San Raffaele University professor Roberto Burioni said.
This means that Italy still does not know how many people have really died of the new illness.
Countries are now looking to certify separate blood tests that determine whether someone already has had the virus and so, theoretically at least, have become immune.
These healthy people would presumably be allowed out of their homes first.
But doctors are not certain how well -- or for how long – COVID-19 immunity works.
It is possible that those who suffered only a mild case of the illness are only slightly immune for a short time.
READ ALSO:
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Here are the businesses that can start reopening in Italy
-
When should you wear a face mask in Italy?
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What are the most promising treatments for Covid-19?
The new blood test kits are still weeks away from being approved and Italian authorities are focused on scaling up the old-fashioned swabs.
They intend to distribute another 2.5 million of them ahead of "phase two", and being able to test asymptomatic people is seen as critical for Italy's immediate future.
Many people in Italy think this was their Achilles' heel - not realising in time that the virus could jump between perfectly healthy looking people.
"That is the one thing we did not think of at the start of the pandemic," San Raffaele's Burioni said.
“The virus had been spreading for many weeks by the time we discovered it," Lombardy's regional health chief Giulio Gallera added.
"We didn't have the chance to contain the outbreak: an atomic bomb exploded here."
ANALYSIS: How and when will Italy's lockdown end?
People are now left to wonder when and how it might be safe to finally come out of their homes.
The rising number of daily fines issued to those out on the streets suggests that Italians are growing tired of sitting at home.
But Manca said he still did not understand how the end of confinement would work.
"Herd immunity is very difficult to achieve with COVID," the professor said.
"You need 90-95 percent (of the population) to have COVID for immunity. That number is too high to reach."
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It's thought that mass testing will be a key part of Italy's "phase two"- the next planned stage of quarantine, in which people must learn to “coexist” with the coronavirus.
It is not yet clear when this phase will begin.
"In phase two, we would like to extend the testing across the country to find those who are infected as early as possible - including those without symptoms," Italy's ISS public health institute director Silvio Brusaferro said.
However, some doctors at the Italian epicentre of the health crisis doubt that testing is their way out of confinement.
"It is a nonsense," Milan's Polytechnic Institute professor Davide Manca said. "Conceptually, I am sceptical."
The reason for Manca's scepticism is plain to see in the math.
Milan's Lombardy region has 10 million people and 11,142 officially registered COVID-19 deaths.
The economically strong area, the size of Belgium, has been under one of the world's strictest lockdowns since early March.
Yet Lombardy has been conducting just 6,500 tests daily over the past 10 days.
Manca estimates it would take more than five years for everyone in Lombardy to get tested just once.
"And you need people tested every 15 days for it to have any meaning," Manca said in a phone interview.
"Even if you raise that number 10 times, that would still take 200 days for one test. That's six or seven months."
Manca was talking about the swab tests that doctors insert up people's noses to see who is COVID-19 positive. Their shortage has made Lombardy's death ratios look stark.
The region had conducted 234,870 tests and confirmed 61,326 cases by Wednesday.
A jarring 18.2 percent of those officially infected with the virus have died of COVID-19 – which would seem to be a startlingly high fatality rate for the virus.
Experts have said this estimated mortality rate will go down once more testing is carried out, as we're currently only seeing part of the picture..
The swab shortage means that Lombardy is only testing those most clearly showing symptoms - and therefore those least likely to survive.
READ ALSO:
"In addition, Lombardy has not tested the elderly in retirement homes, where the virus has circulated a lot," Milan's Vita-Salute San Raffaele University professor Roberto Burioni said.
This means that Italy still does not know how many people have really died of the new illness.
Countries are now looking to certify separate blood tests that determine whether someone already has had the virus and so, theoretically at least, have become immune.
These healthy people would presumably be allowed out of their homes first.
But doctors are not certain how well -- or for how long – COVID-19 immunity works.
It is possible that those who suffered only a mild case of the illness are only slightly immune for a short time.
READ ALSO:
- Here are the businesses that can start reopening in Italy
- When should you wear a face mask in Italy?
- What are the most promising treatments for Covid-19?
The new blood test kits are still weeks away from being approved and Italian authorities are focused on scaling up the old-fashioned swabs.
They intend to distribute another 2.5 million of them ahead of "phase two", and being able to test asymptomatic people is seen as critical for Italy's immediate future.
Many people in Italy think this was their Achilles' heel - not realising in time that the virus could jump between perfectly healthy looking people.
"That is the one thing we did not think of at the start of the pandemic," San Raffaele's Burioni said.
“The virus had been spreading for many weeks by the time we discovered it," Lombardy's regional health chief Giulio Gallera added.
"We didn't have the chance to contain the outbreak: an atomic bomb exploded here."
ANALYSIS: How and when will Italy's lockdown end?
People are now left to wonder when and how it might be safe to finally come out of their homes.
The rising number of daily fines issued to those out on the streets suggests that Italians are growing tired of sitting at home.
But Manca said he still did not understand how the end of confinement would work.
"Herd immunity is very difficult to achieve with COVID," the professor said.
"You need 90-95 percent (of the population) to have COVID for immunity. That number is too high to reach."
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