ANALYSIS: What will happen to Italy's government without Berlusconi?
The death of Silvio Berlusconi raises the question of whether his Forza Italia party has a future and also what his absence will mean for PM Giorgia Meloni’s ruling populist coalition government.
While Berlusconi will mainly be remembered for his three stints as Italy's prime minister in the 1990s and early 2000s, he also leaves behind a more current political legacy.
Berlusconi remained a central figure on Italy’s political scene up until the end - and his death is now sending tremors through the parties in government.
Not only is Berlusconi said to have shaped Italy's right-wing political landscape and created the populist brand of politics we know today, in Italy and beyond, but he directly facilitated Giorgia Meloni’s rise to power and the creation of the hard-right coalition government she leads today.
READ ALSO: 'Trump, 30 years earlier': How Italy's Berlusconi invented populist politics
Today Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party (FI) is the smallest among the three parties that make up the coalition. Berlusconi did not have an official role in government. But he played a key ‘director’ role in the coalition’s creation, and wielded his influence behind the scenes, uniting the fractious forces of Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI) party and Matteo Salvini’s populist League.
The questions many people are now asking following Berlusconi’s death are: Will this mean the end of his Forza Italia party? And what will happen to the coalition government?
In a country so well-known for regular political crises, a government collapse triggered by the disintegration of one of the coalition partners doesn’t seem such an unlikely scenario.
READ ALSO: Silvio Berlusconi: The scandal-hit ‘knight’ who divided Italians
“My hunch is that the impact will be limited; but this is not good news for [Meloni],” said Dr Daniele Albertazzi, Professor at the Department of Politics at the University of Surrey, England, in a Twitter thread on Monday.
Before Berlusconi’s death, Meloni reportedly told political allies that her government needed a “stable” Forza Italia. Her coalition relies on the party's 62 lawmakers between the upper and lower houses of parliament to maintain its solid majority.
But analysts and party insiders say that without Berlusconi, there is no Forza Italia at all.
"From today Forza Italia no longer exists. It dies with Silvio," Gianfranco Micciché, a former senior FI member who was often called Berlusconi's "golden boy", told Italy’s Today news outlet.
Berlusconi never named a successor, and leaves the party in the hands of his family. While senior FI members insisted on Monday that the party will carry on, they reportedly fear a mass exodus of MPs without him.
There is speculation that Berlusconi’s 33-year-old partner Marta Fascina, a little-known FI senator, could now take the party helm, or that his eldest child, Marina, may get involved in politics in order to protect the family’s business interests.
But Berlusconi’s FI has always been what analysts call a “personal party”. And, though his family has the means to continue financing it, Albertazzi says: “there is literally no-one within [FI] today - let alone his children - who has the vision, charisma and knowledge to take this huge task on and try to steady the ship.”
He notes that the party was already in "terminal decline" and says "in the medium term, they are toast."
Silvio Berlusconi with his partner Marta Fascina during Italy's general elections in October 2022. Photo by MATTEO BAZZI / ANSA / AFP
FI lawmakers are now thought likely to be tempted to shift allegiance to other parties - and most are expected to be attracted to FdI as it enjoys soaring popularity.
"I wish Forza Italia could have a future, but I don't see one," former minister and party member Giuliano Urbani told the La Repubblica newspaper, claiming that most of its voters had already switched to Meloni's party.
But it's unclear how many FI lawmakers Meloni would allow to join her party.
Albertazzi points out: “They bring no votes, and the size of parliament has already been reduced by a recent reform.”
He suggests that, for now, Meloni may step in to stabilise FI in order to keep the coalition intact, as the inclusion of Berlusconi’s party lends the government an appearance of moderation.
“It just would not look good for this to become the government ‘of the radical right’ staffed exclusively by the League and Brothers of Italy,” he says.
Coalition partners Matteo Salvini and Giorgia Meloni in November. (Photo by Filippo MONTEFORTE / AFP)
“The main objective for Meloni in the near future is projecting an image of stability and moderation,” both in Italy and abroad, he adds.
“Anything that has the potential to upset the government and focus media attention on divisions and clashes is bad news to her.”
Divisions within this government would be nothing new, and its continued success also hangs on whether or not Meloni and Salvini can work together without Berlusconi’s stabilising influence.
Salvini said on Monday that “politics will be more difficult” without Berlusconi, who "managed to get everyone [in the coalition] to agree, to get everyone in sync.”
When asked by reporters whether the two party leaders would manage not to squabble in Berlusconi’s absence, Meloni said “we owe it to him” not to argue, but admitted he had been the “glue” that held the government together.
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While Berlusconi will mainly be remembered for his three stints as Italy's prime minister in the 1990s and early 2000s, he also leaves behind a more current political legacy.
Berlusconi remained a central figure on Italy’s political scene up until the end - and his death is now sending tremors through the parties in government.
Not only is Berlusconi said to have shaped Italy's right-wing political landscape and created the populist brand of politics we know today, in Italy and beyond, but he directly facilitated Giorgia Meloni’s rise to power and the creation of the hard-right coalition government she leads today.
READ ALSO: 'Trump, 30 years earlier': How Italy's Berlusconi invented populist politics
Today Berlusconi’s Forza Italia party (FI) is the smallest among the three parties that make up the coalition. Berlusconi did not have an official role in government. But he played a key ‘director’ role in the coalition’s creation, and wielded his influence behind the scenes, uniting the fractious forces of Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy (FdI) party and Matteo Salvini’s populist League.
The questions many people are now asking following Berlusconi’s death are: Will this mean the end of his Forza Italia party? And what will happen to the coalition government?
In a country so well-known for regular political crises, a government collapse triggered by the disintegration of one of the coalition partners doesn’t seem such an unlikely scenario.
READ ALSO: Silvio Berlusconi: The scandal-hit ‘knight’ who divided Italians
“My hunch is that the impact will be limited; but this is not good news for [Meloni],” said Dr Daniele Albertazzi, Professor at the Department of Politics at the University of Surrey, England, in a Twitter thread on Monday.
Before Berlusconi’s death, Meloni reportedly told political allies that her government needed a “stable” Forza Italia. Her coalition relies on the party's 62 lawmakers between the upper and lower houses of parliament to maintain its solid majority.
But analysts and party insiders say that without Berlusconi, there is no Forza Italia at all.
"From today Forza Italia no longer exists. It dies with Silvio," Gianfranco Micciché, a former senior FI member who was often called Berlusconi's "golden boy", told Italy’s Today news outlet.
Berlusconi never named a successor, and leaves the party in the hands of his family. While senior FI members insisted on Monday that the party will carry on, they reportedly fear a mass exodus of MPs without him.
There is speculation that Berlusconi’s 33-year-old partner Marta Fascina, a little-known FI senator, could now take the party helm, or that his eldest child, Marina, may get involved in politics in order to protect the family’s business interests.
But Berlusconi’s FI has always been what analysts call a “personal party”. And, though his family has the means to continue financing it, Albertazzi says: “there is literally no-one within [FI] today - let alone his children - who has the vision, charisma and knowledge to take this huge task on and try to steady the ship.”
He notes that the party was already in "terminal decline" and says "in the medium term, they are toast."
FI lawmakers are now thought likely to be tempted to shift allegiance to other parties - and most are expected to be attracted to FdI as it enjoys soaring popularity.
"I wish Forza Italia could have a future, but I don't see one," former minister and party member Giuliano Urbani told the La Repubblica newspaper, claiming that most of its voters had already switched to Meloni's party.
But it's unclear how many FI lawmakers Meloni would allow to join her party.
Albertazzi points out: “They bring no votes, and the size of parliament has already been reduced by a recent reform.”
He suggests that, for now, Meloni may step in to stabilise FI in order to keep the coalition intact, as the inclusion of Berlusconi’s party lends the government an appearance of moderation.
“It just would not look good for this to become the government ‘of the radical right’ staffed exclusively by the League and Brothers of Italy,” he says.
“The main objective for Meloni in the near future is projecting an image of stability and moderation,” both in Italy and abroad, he adds.
“Anything that has the potential to upset the government and focus media attention on divisions and clashes is bad news to her.”
Divisions within this government would be nothing new, and its continued success also hangs on whether or not Meloni and Salvini can work together without Berlusconi’s stabilising influence.
Salvini said on Monday that “politics will be more difficult” without Berlusconi, who "managed to get everyone [in the coalition] to agree, to get everyone in sync.”
When asked by reporters whether the two party leaders would manage not to squabble in Berlusconi’s absence, Meloni said “we owe it to him” not to argue, but admitted he had been the “glue” that held the government together.
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