A new study carried out by scientists at Italy’s National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV) found that tide levels in the Venetian lagoon are rising at a rate of approximately half a centimetre per year on average.
Researchers predicted that the rise will result in some areas of the main island being permanently underwater by 2150, with Saint Mark’s Square forecast to be constantly submerged by 70 centimetres of water.
The exact increase rates weren’t the same across the lagoon, with figures ranging from 4.22 millimetres at the Venice Lido to nearly 6 millimetres in Chioggia, in the southern section of the lagoon.
The study, which combined records from Venice’s tidal centre with satellite data on land subsidence, also concluded that the western side of the city, which includes the Santa Croce, San Polo and Dorsoduro districts, will be among the worst-affected areas.
INGV researchers pointed to rising sea levels in the Venetian lagoon as being emblematic of a wider phenomenon registered across the entire Mediterranean sea, whose levels have increased by some 18 centimetres since the beginning of the 20th century.
“Sea level increase, particularly if accelerated locally by subsidence, is leading to increasingly severe and widespread coastal erosion, beach retreat and marine flooding with very significant environmental and socioeconomic impacts for populations,” INGV researcher Marco Anzidei said.
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Venice has experienced increasingly frequent severe flooding in recent years as the city was hit by some 58 high tides (acque alte) of 110 centimetres or more between 2019 and 2023 – more than twice the number recorded between 2009 and 2013.
A 187-centimetre acqua alta – the second-highest tide in Venice’s history – caused the death of two people and hundreds of millions of euros in damage in November 2019.
A long-planned system of mobile barriers aimed at protecting the city from high tides became operational in late 2020 and has since been activated on over 80 occasions.
But the MOSE sluice gates, which are placed at the lagoon’s main entry points and raised whenever high tides hit, have long been criticised by experts as just a short-term fix to rising sea levels.
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A 2021 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicted a rise in the mean regional sea level of 28-55 centimetres by 2100 in their most optimistic scenario, and 63-101 centimetres in the worst-case scenario.
Experts have forecast that, in either case, the barriers will have to be raised so frequently that they will endanger the survival of Venice’s port industry and the lagoon will gradually turn into a marsh, which may ultimately result in the loss of many local wildlife species.
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